NCAA Tournament
Every year this debate pops up. Some years you’re proven right, some years you’re proven wrong, depending on which side of the fence you stand.
The argument? Do seeds matter?
My take – usually not. Unlike baseball betting or basketball betting (the professional leagues), playoff time leaves zero margin for error. It’s one and done, so to steal a line from Al Pacino, on any given Sunday you’re either gonna win or you’re gonna lose.
Last year would’ve been one of the seldom few that proved me wrong. But this isn’t last year, in reality and certainly in the world of college basketball.
When you’re filling out your bracket for your once a year basketball bet, count on this. 2009 will be one of the all-time crapshoot tournaments. I couldn’t name two sure picks to even make it to the Elite 8, never mind 4.
UConn was at the top of their game, dominating until they lost to Dyson according to the College Basketball Odds machine. Marquette was perceived by many as a Final Four team, but they recently just lost their best player. UNC, like many others, is struggling with their own injuries. Sooners see Griffin come back, but for how long and at what strength, especially when it counts? Pitt loses to Providence; Louisville killed by ND, Wake is the most up-and-down team of anyone this year. Memphis hasn’t been challenged…who else…Michigan State has had a few embarrassing home losses.
This may be the year (like every year) that cute secretary up has you beat after the first round.
Another main reason for this call is simply because nobody has exhibited the traits of a traditionally dominant tournament team: strong inside game, senior class leadership, reliable outside shooting. Most teams have one or two of these traits, but I can’t think of one that boasts the entire package. Looking down the road, this year’s Elite 8 and Final Four will be lucky to have at least a single No. 1 seed among the field.
Of course, as in soccer betting, seeds matter a little bit. Let’s not go overboard. The #1 and #2 seeds definitely have an easier road to the second and third rounds. #3 and #4 seeds aren’t nearly as fortunate. I’m sure you’ve figured this out for yourself, but it bears repeating…you can’t win the tournament if you don’t get past the first round.